The Week Ahead

The week ahead looks to be a whirlwind of earnings reports from major players and critical macroeconomic data releases that could cause volatility in the market, possibly presenting both risk and opportunity. There are a significant number of companies across diverse sectors scheduled to release their financial results. These earnings reports, coupled with other macroeconomic data events, could create a dynamic environment ripe with potential trading opportunities. This newsletter provides a detailed preview of the earnings expectations for Fox Corporation, On Holding AG, Under Armour Inc., Walmart Inc., Alibaba Group Holding Limited, Deere & Company, and CAVA Group Inc., alongside a comprehensive overview of the major macroeconomic events to watch. Active traders could find valuable insights to help them formulate their strategies and potentially capitalize on the market movements that these catalysts may generate.

Earnings Spotlight: Unveiling Potential Market Movers

Earnings season stands as a pivotal period for active traders, offering a concentrated stream of catalysts that can ignite substantial price volatility. As companies lift the veil on their financial performance and offer glimpses into their future outlook, the reported results and accompanying guidance can either validate existing market narratives or introduce significant shifts in investor sentiment. This week's earnings calendar is particularly noteworthy, featuring reports from companies spanning a wide array of industries, each with its own unique set of challenges and opportunities.

Earnings Release Calendar: Your Week at a Glance

○    Company Name: Fox Corporation

■    Ticker Symbol: FOX

■    Fiscal Quarter Ending: Q3 2025 (Mar 2025)

■    Expected Release Date: Monday, May 12, 2025

■    Expected Release Time: BMO (Before Market Open)

○    Company Name: On Holding AG

■    Ticker Symbol: ONON

■    Fiscal Quarter Ending: Q1 2025 (Mar 2025)

■    Expected Release Date: Tuesday, May 13, 2025

■    Expected Release Time: BMO (Before Market Open)

○    Company Name: Under Armour Inc.

■    Ticker Symbol: UA, UAA

■    Fiscal Quarter Ending: Q4 2025 (Mar 2025)

■    Expected Release Date: Tuesday, May 13, 2025

■    Expected Release Time: BMO* (TBD in some sources)

○    Company Name: Walmart Inc.

■    Ticker Symbol: WMT

■    Fiscal Quarter Ending: Q1 2026 (Apr 2025)

■    Expected Release Date: Thursday, May 15, 2025

■    Expected Release Time: BMO (Before Market Open)

○    Company Name: Alibaba Group Holding Limited

■    Ticker Symbol: BABA

■    Fiscal Quarter Ending: Q4 2025 (Mar 2025)

■    Expected Release Date: Thursday, May 15, 2025

■    Expected Release Time: BMO (Before Market Open)

○    Company Name: Deere & Company

■    Ticker Symbol: DE

■    Fiscal Quarter Ending: Q2 2025 (Apr 2025)

■    Expected Release Date: Thursday, May 15, 2025

■    Expected Release Time: BMO (Before Market Open)

○    Company Name: CAVA Group Inc.

■    Ticker Symbol: CAVA

■    Fiscal Quarter Ending: Q1 2025 (Mar 2025)

■    Expected Release Date: Thursday, May 15, 2025

■    Expected Release Time: AMC (After Market Close)

This calendar serves as an essential guide for active traders, providing a consolidated view of some of the week's key earnings events. By identifying the specific dates and times of these releases, traders can effectively plan their trading activities, allowing them to strategically position themselves to potentially capitalize on the anticipated volatility surrounding these corporate announcements. The timing of the release (before market open or after market close) is particularly crucial for traders employing pre-market or after-hours trading strategies.

Individual Company Previews: Deep Dive into Expectations

Fox Corporation (FOX):

Reporting its fiscal third quarter for 2025 (ending March 2025) on Monday, May 12th, before the market opens, Fox Corporation is expected to reveal an Earnings Per Share (EPS) of approximately $0.93. This represents an anticipated year-over-year decline of around 14.7%. However, revenue is projected to see significant growth, estimated to be in the range of $4.14 to $4.17 billion, marking a substantial year-over-year increase of approximately 20.2% to 20.98%. A key area of focus for traders will be the performance of advertising revenues, particularly from the Tubi streaming service and the Fox Sports segment, with the broadcast of the Super Bowl in February likely providing a significant boost. Despite the expected decrease in EPS, the strong revenue growth narrative suggests that the market's reaction will likely hinge on whether this growth can offset concerns about profitability and if the company's guidance points towards positive future trends. Notably, the consensus EPS estimate has seen an upward revision recently, indicating some positive sentiment as the earnings release approaches. Active traders will be scrutinizing the report to ascertain if the robust revenue growth is sustainable and if cost management is becoming a concern contributing to the EPS decline. The performance of individual segments, such as Cable Network Programming and Television, as detailed in, will also be closely monitored.

On Holding AG (ONON):

The Swiss performance sportswear brand, On Holding AG, is scheduled to report its first-quarter 2025 results (ending March 2025) on Tuesday, May 13th, before the US market opens. Analysts anticipate an EPS in the range of $0.18 to $0.26. This represents a significant year-over-year decrease of approximately 36.8% compared to the $0.32 reported in the same quarter last year. Despite this expected EPS decline, revenue is projected to be strong, estimated between $676.4 million and $773.88 million, reflecting a substantial year-over-year growth of around 33.1%. This revenue growth is likely driven by the company's premium brand positioning and the continued expansion of its direct-to-consumer (DTC) channel. Interestingly, On Holding has a positive Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) of +4.17%, suggesting a potential for the company to exceed analyst expectations. Traders will be particularly interested in the sustainability of this high revenue growth and whether the EPS decline is a temporary effect of strategic investments in expansion or indicative of underlying profitability challenges. The company's guidance for the remainder of the year, especially concerning its gross profit and EBITDA margins, as highlighted in its previous full-year outlook, will be closely watched by the market.

Under Armour Inc. (UA):

Under Armour Inc. is expected to release its fiscal fourth-quarter 2025 earnings (ending March 2025) on Tuesday, May 13th, before the market opens, although some sources indicate the exact time is yet to be confirmed. Analysts forecast an EPS loss in the range of -$0.08 to -$0.09. This represents a significant year-over-year decline of approximately 181.8% compared to the $0.11 EPS reported in the same quarter last year. Revenue is also expected to decrease, projected to be between $1.12 billion and $1.2 billion, reflecting a year-over-year decline of around 13.1% to 14.1%. These figures suggest ongoing challenges within Under Armour's business, particularly in its North America segment as the company implements a strategic reset. However, it's noteworthy that the consensus EPS estimate has seen a substantial upward revision of 33.3% over the past 30 days, potentially indicating a less severe loss than initially anticipated. Active traders will be keenly observing any signs of progress in the company's turnaround efforts, particularly within key product categories such as footwear and apparel. Metrics like gross margin and inventory levels, as discussed in the company's fiscal 2025 outlook, will also be important to monitor. The market's long-term view will likely be heavily influenced by the company's guidance for the upcoming fiscal year 2026.

Walmart Inc. (WMT):

The retail giant, Walmart Inc., is scheduled to report its first-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings (ending April 2025) on Thursday, May 15th, before the market opens. Analysts expect an EPS of approximately $0.58. This represents a slight year-over-year decrease of around 3.3% compared to the $0.60 reported in the same quarter last year. Revenue, however, is projected to continue its growth trajectory, estimated to be between $164.58 billion and $165.56 billion, indicating a year-over-year increase of approximately 2.5% to 2.9%. Traders will be paying close attention to the performance of Walmart's digital channels and any potential impact from tariffs on its supply chain and pricing strategies. It's worth noting that the consensus EPS estimate has seen a slight downward revision over the past month. Active traders will be interested in whether Walmart can maintain its strong performance in the face of potential economic headwinds and if its ongoing investments in its digital ecosystem, including initiatives like Walmart Connect for digital advertising and its membership programs, are continuing to drive growth and customer engagement.

Alibaba Group Holding Limited (BABA):

Alibaba Group Holding Limited is set to announce its fiscal fourth-quarter 2025 results (ending March 2025) on Thursday, May 15th, before the US market opens, which aligns with 7:30 PM Hong Kong time. Analysts expect the company to report an EPS in the range of $1.27 to $1.48 (in USD), although it's important to note that some sources may report figures in RMB. This represents a year-over-year increase of approximately 5.7% to 14.13% compared to the $1.05 EPS reported in the same quarter last year. Revenue is also projected to grow, estimated to be around $33.1 billion USD or approximately RMB 236.1 billion or around $240 billion USD, indicating a year-over-year growth of roughly 6.4% to 8% in RMB terms. A key focus for investors will be the performance of Alibaba's core e-commerce business, including Taobao and Tmall, as well as the growth trajectory of its cloud intelligence group and any updates regarding its significant investments in artificial intelligence. The potential impact of new import tariffs imposed by the US government will also be a significant point of interest. Notably, there have been upward revisions in EPS estimates over the past 90 days, suggesting a potentially positive outlook. Active traders will be looking for confirmation of the company's strategic initiatives aimed at improving its cost structure and focusing on higher-margin businesses. Guidance for the upcoming fiscal year 2026, particularly concerning revenue projections and margin expectations, will be closely analyzed.

Deere & Company (DE):

Deere & Company, a leading manufacturer of agricultural and construction equipment, is scheduled to release its second-quarter fiscal 2025 earnings (ending April 2025) on Thursday, May 15th, before the market opens. Analysts anticipate an EPS in the range of $5.62 to $6.03. This represents a significant year-over-year decline of approximately 26% to 33.9% compared to the $8.53 EPS reported in the same quarter last year. Revenue is also expected to decrease, projected to be between $10.65 billion and $10.79 billion, reflecting a year-over-year decline of around 20.7% to 21.8% compared to the $13.32 billion reported last year. These expected declines are likely due to lower shipment volumes amidst uncertain market conditions within the agricultural sector. It's worth noting that analysts have slightly lowered their EPS estimates for Deere over the past month. Active traders will be closely monitoring the company's commentary regarding inventory levels and the potential impact of volatile US trade policies, including concerns about counter-tariffs on American exports. The company's outlook for the remainder of fiscal year 2025 will be crucial in understanding the near-term prospects for the stock.

CAVA Group Inc. (CAVA):

CAVA Group Inc., a Mediterranean fast-casual restaurant brand, is expected to report its first-quarter 2025 financial results (ending March 2025) on Thursday, May 15th, after the market closes. Analysts anticipate an EPS in the range of $0.13 to $0.14. This represents a year-over-year increase of approximately 9% to 16.7% compared to the $0.12 EPS reported in the same quarter last year. Revenue is also projected to show strong growth, estimated to be between $327.76 million and $330.46 million, indicating a year-over-year increase of around 26.54% to 27.6% compared to the $259.01 million reported last year. This growth is likely driven by the company's continued expansion through new restaurant openings and healthy same-restaurant sales growth. It's worth noting that the consensus EPS estimate has seen a slight downward revision over the last 30 days. Active traders will be evaluating CAVA's ability to maintain its impressive growth trajectory and improve its profitability margins as it scales its operations in the competitive restaurant industry. The company's guidance for net new restaurant openings and same-restaurant sales growth for the rest of fiscal year 2025 will be closely watched.

Macroeconomic Events Shaping the Market Next Week: Navigating the Bigger Picture

Beyond the individual company earnings, a series of macroeconomic events in the upcoming week has the potential to significantly influence overall market sentiment and create trading opportunities for active traders. These broader economic forces can often dictate market trends, even overshadowing company-specific news in the short term.

US Economic Calendar Highlights (May 12-16, 2025):

○    Date: Monday, May 12

■    Time (ET): 2:00 PM

■    Data Release: Monthly Budget Statement

■    Potential Market Impact: Provides insights into government spending and fiscal health.

○    Date: Tuesday, May 13

■    Time (ET): 8:30 AM

■    Data Release: CPI (Consumer Price Index) (YoY & MoM)

■    Potential Market Impact: Critical inflation gauge; higher-than-expected readings can signal potential Fed tightening, negatively impacting markets. Lower readings may suggest easing inflation, supporting markets.

○    Date: Tuesday, May 13

■    Time (ET): 10:00 AM

■    Data Release: NFIB Business Optimism Index

■    Potential Market Impact: Reflects small business sentiment, can indicate future economic activity.

○    Date: Tuesday, May 13

■    Time (ET): 3:00 PM

■    Data Release: Total Household Debt

■    Potential Market Impact: Indicates consumer financial health; rising debt can raise concerns.

○    Date: Tuesday, May 13

■    Time (ET): 4:30 PM

■    Data Release: API Crude Oil Stock Change

■    Potential Market Impact: Relevant for energy traders, impacts oil prices.

○    Date: Thursday, May 15

■    Time (ET): 8:30 AM

■    Data Release: PPI (Producer Price Index) (YoY & MoM)

■    Potential Market Impact: Key inflation indicator from the producer perspective; similar market impact to CPI.

○    Date: Thursday, May 15

■    Time (ET): 8:30 AM

■    Data Release: Empire State Manufacturing Index

■    Potential Market Impact: Early indicator of manufacturing activity in the New York region.

○    Date: Thursday, May 15

■    Time (ET): 8:30 AM

■    Data Release: Retail Sales (MoM & YoY, Ex-Auto)

■    Potential Market Impact: Crucial indicator of consumer spending; strong data can boost markets, while weak data can signal slowdown.

○    Date: Thursday, May 15

■    Time (ET): 8:30 AM

■    Data Release: Philly Fed's Manufacturing Index

■    Potential Market Impact: Similar to the Empire State index, reflecting manufacturing in the Philadelphia region.

○    Date: Thursday, May 15

■    Time (ET): 9:15 AM

■    Data Release: Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization

■    Potential Market Impact: Measures output of factories, mines, and utilities; indicates economic activity.

○    Date: Thursday, May 15

■    Time (ET): 10:00 AM

■    Data Release: Business Inventories

■    Potential Market Impact: Indicates level of goods held by businesses; can suggest future production and demand.

○    Date: Thursday, May 15

■    Time (ET): 10:00 AM

■    Data Release: NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index

■    Potential Market Impact: Gauges homebuilder confidence; reflects health of the housing market.

○    Date: Friday, May 16

■    Time (ET): 8:30 AM

■    Data Release: Housing Starts & Building Permits

■    Potential Market Impact: Key indicators for the housing market; strong data suggests economic growth, while weak data can be concerning.

○    Date: Friday, May 16

■    Time (ET): 10:00 AM

■    Data Release: University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index (Preliminary)

■    Potential Market Impact: Reflects consumer sentiment and expectations, influencing spending.

The week's economic calendar is heavily weighted towards inflation-related data with the release of both the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Tuesday and the Producer Price Index (PPI) on Thursday. These reports will be critical in shaping market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance. Higher-than-anticipated inflation figures could reignite concerns about the Fed maintaining or even increasing interest rates to curb price pressures, potentially leading to downward pressure on equity markets. Conversely, weaker-than-expected inflation data might suggest that price pressures are easing, potentially providing support to the market.

Also on Thursday, the release of Retail Sales data will offer insights into consumer spending, a major driver of the US economy. Strong retail sales could signal a healthy economy, potentially boosting stock prices, particularly in the consumer discretionary sector. However, exceptionally strong data might also fuel inflation worries. Conversely, weak retail sales figures could indicate a potential economic slowdown, negatively impacting market sentiment, especially for retail-focused companies like Walmart and Under Armour.

Housing market indicators will also be in focus, with Housing Starts and Building Permits scheduled for release on Friday. Robust housing data typically reflects overall economic strength, benefiting related industries such as homebuilders and materials suppliers. Conversely, weak data in this sector can be a concerning sign for broader economic conditions. Finally, the preliminary reading of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index on Friday will provide a snapshot of how consumers are feeling about the economy, which can influence their spending behavior and, consequently, market performance.

Federal Reserve Watch:

Several Federal Reserve officials are slated to make public appearances next week. On Tuesday, Fed Williams and Fed Barr are scheduled to speak. Later in the week, on Thursday, Fed Kugler, Fed Goolsbee, and Fed Waller will also be making remarks. Additionally, Anna Cieslak from Duke University is scheduled to present at the Richmond Fed on Thursday as part of CORE Week, with her topic being "Tough talk: The Fed and the Risk Premium". Any comments from these Federal Reserve officials regarding the central bank's outlook on monetary policy, inflation, or the overall economy could potentially influence market sentiment and lead to intraday volatility. Even in the absence of a formal FOMC meeting, the communication from Fed policymakers is closely watched by the market for any hints about future policy directions.

Global Economic Events:

While the US economic calendar is packed with potentially market-moving data, several international events could also have implications for traders. The ASEAN Economic Forum is taking place in Kuala Lumpur from May 12th to 15th, focusing on digital infrastructure and trade growth in Southeast Asia. This could be relevant for companies with a significant presence in the region, such as Alibaba. The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) is holding its annual meeting in London from May 13th to 15th, with a focus on sustainability in emerging markets. This event could influence investor sentiment towards companies operating in these regions. UNCTAD (United Nations Conference on Trade and Development) has several meetings scheduled, including an Empretec FintechHub workshop in Riyadh from May 11th to 15th and an Intergovernmental Group of Experts session on E-commerce and the Digital Economy in Geneva from May 12th to 14th. These meetings could have implications for the technology and trade sectors. Additionally, the World Bank has various events planned throughout the week, including conferences in Cabo Verde and Peru, and workshops in Rome and globally, covering topics such as childcare, sustainability, women's economic empowerment, and infrastructure development. While these events may not directly cause immediate market swings, they can provide valuable context regarding global economic trends and potential opportunities.

Trading Insights & Considerations: Strategies for an Active Week

The upcoming week, with its busy earnings calendar and significant macroeconomic data releases, looks to be poised to potentially be a period of heightened market volatility. Active traders should be prepared for substantial price swings and have well-defined strategies in place to navigate this dynamic environment.

Thorough pre-market preparation is absolutely essential. Before the trading day begins, traders should carefully review both the earnings calendar and the economic calendar to identify the key events scheduled for that day. Analyzing analyst expectations for the earnings reports of the companies on their watchlist and understanding the potential market impact of the scheduled macroeconomic data releases will be crucial for formulating effective trading plans.

When it comes to trading around earnings releases, several strategies can be considered. Examining the historical price action of the featured companies around their previous earnings announcements can provide valuable insights into the typical magnitude and direction of post-earnings moves. High levels of implied volatility often precede earnings releases, indicating that the market anticipates a significant price change. Traders might consider strategies that aim to capitalize on the initial market reaction to the earnings numbers and the subsequent price trend. Furthermore, paying close attention to the forward-looking guidance provided by companies during their earnings calls is sometimes more impactful on the stock price than the results of the current quarter alone.

For trading macroeconomic data, it's important to be aware that key releases, particularly inflation figures (CPI and PPI) and retail sales data, can trigger immediate and often sharp market reactions. Lightspeed's emphasis on low-latency order routing can be particularly advantageous in capturing these initial movements. However, traders should also be prepared for potential whipsaws and consider waiting for confirmation of the initial reaction before committing to a position. Monitoring how the market digests the data throughout the trading session can help determine whether the initial move is likely to continue or reverse. Additionally, it's important to consider how different sectors of the market might react to specific types of macroeconomic data. For instance, expectations of rising interest rates could negatively affect the valuations of growth stocks while potentially benefiting the financial sector.

In such a potentially volatile week, robust risk management is paramount. Employing stop-loss orders is crucial for limiting potential losses, and traders should avoid over-leveraging their positions. The risk of gap opens following earnings releases, especially for after-hours reporters, should also be carefully considered when setting risk parameters.

Lightspeed's trading platform offers several features that can aid active traders in navigating this week's market activity. The platform's speed and reliability are essential for routing orders promptly in response to market-moving news. Traders can utilize advanced order types, such as trailing stops, and access Level II data to gain a deeper understanding of market depth and potential price movements. The ability to customize the platform's layout allows traders to monitor relevant news feeds, real-time charts, and order entry tools simultaneously. For those with advanced trading strategies, the Lightspeed Connect API offers the capability to automate trades based on specific pre-set criteria.

Lightspeed: Your Edge in the Market: Empowering Active Traders

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Recognizing that every trader has their own unique style and strategies, our platforms offer extensive customization options, allowing you to tailor your trading environment to better suit your individual preferences and techniques. Staying informed is paramount, which is why Lightspeed provides access to comprehensive, real-time market data, including Level II quotes and insightful market analysis, empowering you to make well-informed trading decisions. Our advanced order management system offers a wide array of order types, including trailing stops, and sophisticated routing capabilities, enabling you to implement even the most complex trading strategies and effectively manage your risk. Should you ever require assistance, our dedicated customer support team is readily available to provide the expert help you need. For those looking to delve deeper into options trading, our platform features like the Optionality widget streamline the process of entering multi-leg strategies. We also offer valuable educational resources, including our Options Academy and Active Trader Blog.

If you are an active trader seeking a platform that may provide a true competitive edge in the marketplace, we invite you to explore the Lightspeed Trader platform. Visit our website to learn more about our offerings and consider opening an account today. For those who want to experience the power of Lightspeed Trader firsthand, we encourage you to request a free demo. Stay informed, trade strategically, and let Lightspeed be your partner in achieving your trading goals.